In the 2026 QB Annual from Pro Football Focus, McCarthy’s 2025 season is examined with a key footnote about interception luck. The analysis shows that McCarthy threw 12 interceptions on 243 attempts, a harsh box-score tally. The metric highlights that his net interception luck was -5.25—the worst among qualifying quarterbacks. In other words, McCarthy had 12 actual interceptions despite an expected total of 6.75, indicating defenses rarely beat him on plays they did not capitalize on, as they dropped only three of his 15 interception opportunities and only two turnover-worthy throws.
Despite this negative takeaway, the report notes that McCarthy’s passing opportunities were difficult for defenses to capitalize on. PFF also presents concerns about accuracy. McCarthy recorded an accuracy rate of 51.7%, ranking 42nd out of 43 qualified passers. Even when passes were catchable, some were still off target. The catchable-but-inaccurate rate for McCarthy was 25.4%, the second-highest among qualifying quarterbacks. This means more than one in four of his targeted passes arrived in a location that limited yards after the catch or required receivers to adjust, contributing to a less favorable overall profile.
Taken together, McCarthy was among the least accurate passers in the NFL that season, and his interception luck did not provide him much relief. If he earns the starting job again in 2026, there is an expectation that some of that negative luck could regress toward the mean, potentially improving his turnover numbers if other factors align positively.
Ahead of training camp, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell discussed the quarterback competition, emphasizing the goal of creating an environment where whichever quarterback is on the field can prepare and perform effectively. He noted that quality play at the position can take different shapes depending on the players’ skill sets, and this adaptability is key to the team’s chances in various games.
The team brought in veteran Kyler Murray to compete, underscoring that the QB battle would extend into training camp and possibly preseason. With ambitions for deep playoff runs and star talent on offense, the Vikings are evaluating the best path forward at quarterback without rushing the decision.
Overall, the 2025 season left questions about McCarthy’s consistency and accuracy, but the analytics point to an unusual kind of misfortune with interceptions. The coming offseason and training camp will determine how Minnesota positions its quarterback depth chart for the next chapter.
