As a reminder of the unpredictable nature of Week 1, last season’s opening results showed how quickly expectations can shift. A week-one outcome can feel surprising in the moment but may look different in hindsight when teams evolve over the season.
Here are the Week 1 games where Vegas might be undervaluing the underdogs and where an upset could be on the table.
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
This matchup features two clubs finished at 3-14 last season. The Jets will lean on their defense to pressure Cam Ward and look for interceptions they couldn’t cash in on in 2025. On offense, Geno Smith should be able to connect with explosive playmakers like Garrett Wilson and Adonai Mitchell, while the Jets aim to capitalize with a timely takeaway on Ward. The expectation is for a competitive game where New York could capture a road win and still face a challenging season overall.
Final score prediction: Jets 16, Titans 15
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
Both teams were 3-14 last year, but this game carries noticeable intrigue due to personnel changes and the strategic hurdles each side faces. The Dolphins come in with a new coaching staff, a new quarterback, and a revamped receiving corps, plus a sizable amount of dead money impacting their cap. Despite the upheaval, there are reasons to believe in Miami’s ability to move the ball and create plays, even on the road.
The Raiders, at home, will rely on a balanced approach and opportunistic defense to keep the contest tight. Malik Willis is expected to create space for the running game and test Miami’s defense, while the Dolphins will push for points with explosive plays and steady ball management. Expect a back-and-forth affair that could go past the mid-fourth quarter.
Final score prediction: Dolphins 29, Raiders 28
Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
This is one of the more compelling Week 1 matchups, featuring two teams with strong playoff aspirations and recent deep runs. The Bills enter as a slight favorite, largely due to star power, but the matchup will hinge on run defense and run stopping ability. Buffalo has upgraded their run defense, while Houston has retooled the offensive line and added a proven back in David Montgomery to bolster the ground game.
If CJ Stroud can protect the football and rely on a stout Houston defense, the Texans can control the tempo and keep Buffalo’s offense in check. The result could hinge on which defense imposes its will on the ground and minimizes costly turnovers.
Final score prediction: Texans 26, Bills 24
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
Divisional rivalries are notoriously unpredictable, and Week 1 often yields surprises. The Giants, serving as the home underdog, will have the crowd behind them in a high-stakes opener. The Cowboys and their offense present a potent challenge, but the dramatic twists of opening night can favor the home team. If New York minimizes mistakes and executes in key moments, they could pull off a victory in a tightly contested matchup.
Final score prediction: Giants 30, Cowboys 29
In this preview, the focus is on potential Week 1 upsets where the underdogs have a credible path to victory. Each game features teams that can surprise with timely plays, disciplined defense, and strategic game plans that exploit Week 1 uncertainty. As the season unfolds, these matchups may serve as early indicators of how teams adapt and grow throughout the 2026 campaign.
