The path to an MVP typically hinges on three pillars: a strong roster and depth, a favorable offensive system, and the health and efficiency of the team’s quarterback. As training camps open, five quarterbacks stand out as fitting all three criteria: they’ve returned meaningful production, added offseason improvements, and are positioned on schedules that could keep them in the January conversation.
Josh Allen enters as the front-runner after adding a true No. 1 receiver
The Buffalo Bills vaulted Allen toward back-to-back MVP consideration by adding DJ Moore, a proven NFL receiver, to complement his dynamic skill set. Moore joins a core that includes familiar pieces and a retooled coaching staff, with Joe Brady stepping in as head coach after previously serving as offensive coordinator in Carolina. Buffalo retained most of its 2025 starters, creating continuity and a platform for a strong campaign. The 2025 season saw Allen accumulate 4,247 total yards and 39 total touchdowns, becoming the lone player to reach 3,000 passing yards and 500 rushing yards in that year. If Allen maintains that production and the offense sustains its efficiency, he could be the frontrunner again.
Lamar Jackson relies on a play-action system built for his strengths
A two-time MVP, Jackson remains one of the league’s most dynamic athletes, with a career arc that combines elite rushing ability with improving passing efficiency. After a strong start to the 2025 season before an injury hampered Baltimore’s plans, the organization pivoted to a more pass-friendly, play-action-centric approach under a young offensive coordinator. The resulting scheme is designed to maximize Jackson’s strengths while keeping opposing defenses off balance. The Ravens also upgraded the front end of their defense and offensive line, addressing issues that limited Jackson’s potential in prior seasons. The key uncertainty remains the center position, where a new snapper would need to mesh seamlessly with an offense that relies on under-center play and timing.
Joe Burrow returns healthy behind what he calls his most talented group
Burrow’s 2025 season was interrupted by a turf toe injury that limited him to eight games, and Cincinnati stumbled to a 6-11 record. When healthy, Burrow has demonstrated elite production, throwing for thousands of yards in multiple seasons and compiling a high touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Bengals have rebuilt their defense to become more competitive, bringing in impactful players and improving pass rush and secondary depth. On offense, Burrow again enjoys a strong supporting cast featuring Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, with a stable of running backs to complement the offense. If Cincinnati can stay healthier and the defense can stabilize, Burrow could position himself for another MVP run given the prolific nature of his efficiency-driven game.
Justin Herbert pairs with Mike McDaniel and a rebuilt line
Herbert enters a pivotal year with a new offensive mind in Mike McDaniel, whose system emphasizes quick, accurate throws and yards after the catch. The Chargers addressed critical line issues in the offseason, strengthening the interior with Tyler Biadasz and aiming to get Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt back to full health. With a deep, talented receiving corps that includes Ladd McConkey, Omarion Hampton, Quentin Johnston, and veteran David Njoku at tight end, Herbert has the pieces to excel in a fast-paced, timing-based offense. The primary challenge remains staying competitive within a tough AFC West and translating regular-season success into postseason success, but a strong offensive framework could push Herbert into MVP contention.
Patrick Mahomes pursues a third MVP while recovering from a torn ACL
Mahomes’ case for MVP hinges on health first. He sustained a torn ACL late in the previous season, ending Kansas City’s campaign and interrupting a historic run of deep playoff appearances. Early reports suggest he is on track for a Week 1 return, though returning to practice and stepping back into elite performance are not the same thing. Kansas City has reinforced the offense with Kenneth Walker III to diversify the rushing attack and preserve Mahomes’ playmaking ability, while retaining a sturdy interior line anchored by Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. The receiving corps will be tested by off-field issues and departures, but the Chiefs’ playcalling, system efficiency, and Mahomes’ unique ability to improvise under duress could still place him at the top of MVP discussions if he returns near peak form. This season presents a unique proving ground: Mahomes has thrived in high-velocity, high-stakes environments, and his outlook remains among the boldest when healthy.
Bottom line
The MVP race is shaping up around five quarterbacks who combine elite talent with favorable surrounding conditions. Each has a plausible path to 11 or more wins, a necessary criterion for legitimate MVP consideration in the modern era. The quarterback position remains the most critical determinant for team success in today’s NFL, and a favorable schedule, strong line play, and reliable weapons can push any of these players into the top tier of MVP contenders once again. As the season unfolds, fans should watch how each offense adapts to scheme changes, how injuries stabilize or derail campaigns, and which teams sustain momentum into December and January.
