NFL Week 10 features 11 Sunday matchups, beginning with Patriots-Lions in Munich and ending with 49ers-Cowboys. The Jaguars, Seahawks and 49ers are the top-rated spread picks, each carrying a 2.5-unit rating as road favorites against struggling opponents.
Each spread and total recommendation is rated from 0 to 3 units. Jacksonville is favored by 10.5 points at Tennessee, while Raiders rookie Fernando Mendoza is set to make his first NFL start against Seattle.
## New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions
**Prediction:** Lions 28, Patriots 27
**Picks:** Patriots +2.5 (0.5u); Over 49.5 (1.5u)
Both teams will be short-handed in the secondary. Detroit ruled out cornerback DJ Reed and safety Kerby Joseph, while New England will be without cornerback Carlton Davis III. The Lions have allowed 18 passing touchdowns, and Patriots quarterback Drake Maye has thrown 18.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is questionable with a rib injury, while A.J. Brown is questionable with ankle and knee issues. Detroit has the more efficient offense, but its depleted defense makes New England and the points a small-value play. The over gets the stronger rating because neither secondary is at full strength.
## Kansas City Chiefs vs. Atlanta Falcons
**Prediction:** Chiefs 24, Falcons 17
**Picks:** Chiefs -3 (1.5u); Under 47.5 (2u)
Patrick Mahomes practiced fully Friday and has no injury designation after hurting his throwing elbow against the Jets. Kansas City is 6-2 and has allowed only seven passing touchdowns. Atlanta, at 3-6, has thrown 11.
Kenneth Walker III is questionable after tweaking his groin in practice. Atlanta’s defense is tougher against the run than the pass, which could put more of the game in Mahomes’ hands. His presence gives the Chiefs an edge, while Atlanta’s run defense and Kansas City’s pass coverage support the under.
## Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns
**Prediction:** Texans 23, Browns 20
**Picks:** Browns +4.5 (1.5u); Over 40.5 (0.5u)
Houston’s defense is dealing with several absences. Danielle Hunter, who has a hamstring injury, and Azeez Al-Shaair are out. Will Anderson Jr. is questionable with an ankle injury after missing practice Friday. Receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is also out.
Deshaun Watson is set to start for Cleveland against his former team after Shedeur Sanders started in Week 9. The Browns’ 12th-ranked defense has allowed only 12 passing touchdowns, a useful counter to Houston’s eighth-ranked offense. The Texans are still projected to win, but their defensive injuries make Cleveland plus 4.5 the more appealing side.
## Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
**Prediction:** Packers 20, Vikings 17
**Picks:** Packers -2.5 (0.5u); Under 42.5 (2u)
Kirk Cousins is expected to start for Minnesota just five days after the team acquired him from Las Vegas. Kyler Murray is out with a hamstring injury. Cousins will also be without T.J. Hockenson and Jauan Jennings, and the Vikings have thrown only eight touchdowns.
Both defenses could limit scoring. Minnesota has allowed a league-low 1,495 passing yards, while Green Bay has the sixth-ranked defense despite the absence of Micah Parsons. Josh Jacobs is also out. The Packers are 6-3 and have the slight home-field edge after Minnesota lost two straight, but the under is the stronger bet.
## Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans
**Prediction:** Jaguars 30, Titans 13
**Picks:** Jaguars -10.5 (2.5u); Under 46.5 (1u)
Jacksonville is 6-2 and ranks third in offense and second in defense in EPA per play. Tennessee, at 1-7, ranks 27th on both sides of the ball. Jaguars coach Liam Coen is resting Jordan Davis and Jessie Bates III because neither has had a bye yet.
The Titans ruled out guard Peter Skoronski and receiver Carnell Tate. Tennessee quarterback Cam Ward has recognized Jacksonville as a strong defense, and the Jaguars are coming off a 33-10 win over Baltimore. Jacksonville can cover the spread without much scoring from Tennessee, which also makes the under attractive.
## Miami Dolphins vs. Indianapolis Colts
**Prediction:** Colts 21, Dolphins 17
**Picks:** Colts -3.5 (0.5u); Under 38.5 (0.5u)
Kyle McCord is set to make his first NFL start for Miami, which is 1-7. Malik Willis went on injured reserve with a core muscle injury.
Indianapolis is 2-7 and traded Keenan Allen and Josh Downs at the deadline. Alec Pierce remains on injured reserve. Both offenses have thrown only six touchdown passes, so the spread and total are small plays. Miami has allowed 16 passing touchdowns, giving the Colts enough of an advantage to earn the projected home win.
## Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
**Prediction:** Panthers 27, Saints 24
**Picks:** Panthers +2.5 (1u); Over 48.5 (1u)
Both teams are 3-5, with Carolina holding a slight edge on both sides of the ball. Saints quarterback Tyler Shough recorded his sixth 250-yard passing game last week against Cleveland, and Chris Olave is averaging 91.8 receiving yards per game.
Carolina could have trouble slowing that passing combination, with Jaelan Phillips questionable and linebacker Bobby Okereke out. New Orleans is also thin up front: center Erik McCoy and offensive lineman Taliese Fuaga are ruled out. The Saints have allowed 1,071 rushing yards, giving Carolina an opportunity to run effectively. The points and over are the picks.
## Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets
**Prediction:** Bills 30, Jets 23
**Picks:** Jets +8.5 (0.5u); Over 50.5 (1u)
Buffalo is 7-1 and faces a short week after its Monday night win at Minnesota. Right tackle Spencer Brown is doubtful with an ankle injury. James Cook ran for 107 yards against the Vikings and ranks fifth in the league with 814 rushing yards.
The 2-7 Jets have lost four straight and rank 31st in red-zone touchdown rate at 40.7%. Buffalo’s defense ranks 16th, so New York should have opportunities to move the ball even if some drives end in field goals. That could keep the margin inside 8.5 points and help the total go over.
## Seattle Seahawks vs. Las Vegas Raiders
**Prediction:** Seahawks 27, Raiders 13
**Picks:** Seahawks -6.5 (2.5u); Under 40.5 (0.5u)
Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick, is set to make his first NFL start after Las Vegas traded Cousins. He faces Seattle’s fourth-ranked defense. The Raiders have lost five of six after their coach, Klint Kubiak, won his first three games.
Drew Lock will start again with Sam Darnold out because of rib and quad injuries. Seattle is also without Charles Cross, Quenton Nelson and Leonard Williams. However, the Raiders have allowed a league-high 20 passing touchdowns, making Seattle the stronger spread pick. The under has limited room for error if Las Vegas benefits from short fields.
## Los Angeles Rams vs. Arizona Cardinals
**Prediction:** Rams 27, Cardinals 10
**Picks:** Rams -9.5 (2u); Under 39.5 (1.5u)
Carson Beck will make his first career start for Arizona after Gardner Minshew suffered a season-ending elbow injury. Beck faces a fifth-ranked Rams defense. Los Angeles has won three straight since an 18-16 loss to Arizona in October.
Myles Garrett is questionable but expected to play. Trent McDuffie is also questionable, while Puka Nacua is out. Arizona has allowed 19 passing touchdowns, the second most in the league. The Rams could build a lead and then rely on their running game, supporting both the spread and under.
## San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys
**Prediction:** 49ers 34, Cowboys 23
**Picks:** 49ers -4.5 (2.5u); Over 55.5 (0.5u)
San Francisco leads the league in offensive EPA per play, while Dallas ranks 31st in defense. The Cowboys’ secondary is short-handed: Joey Porter Jr. and DaRon Bland are questionable with ankle injuries, and safety P.J. Locke is out with a concussion.
George Pickens is cleared to play, and CeeDee Lamb had 195 receiving yards in Week 9, giving Dallas a chance to score. Still, the 49ers have the stronger overall team and a ninth-ranked defense that is particularly effective against the run. San Francisco is the better bet against the spread, while the 55.5-point total gets a smaller rating.
Patriots-Lions starts the Sunday slate at 9:30 a.m. ET on FOX from Munich. The main early window begins at 1 p.m. ET, and 49ers-Cowboys closes the afternoon at 4:25 p.m. ET on FOX.
*Odds may change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.*
