Washington Commanders head coach Dan Quinn has moved sharply to the top of the market tracking which NFL head coach might be the first to leave his position. After Washington’s overtime loss to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, Quinn’s implied probability rose from 6.3% to 63%, according to the latest figures from the Kalshi market.
Quinn’s surge came after he slammed his headset onto the turf during the collapse, drawing criticism from fans and renewing questions about his future in Washington. The market now places him 40 percentage points ahead of the next names on the list: Philadelphia Eagles coach Nick Sirianni and Tampa Bay Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles, both at 23%.
These percentages reflect market estimates, not certainty. A coach’s position can shift quickly as results change, and a single game may have a significant effect on expectations.
## Latest NFL Coach-Fired Market Probabilities
The figures below cover the possibility that a coach is fired, resigns, or otherwise leaves before February 15, 2027.
| Coach | Probability | Recent movement |
|—|—:|—:|
| Dan Quinn | 63% | Up 46 percentage points |
| Nick Sirianni | 23% | Down 13 points |
| Todd Bowles | 23% | Down 24 points |
| Robert Saleh | 14% | Down 6 points |
| Brian Schottenheimer | 10% | Up 5 points |
| DeMeco Ryans | 7% | Up 5 points |
| Jim Harbaugh | 5% | Down 3 points |
| Matt LaFleur | 1% | Down 5 points |
## Quinn’s Sudden Rise
A 46-point increase in a matter of days represents a substantial change in market expectations. At 63%, Quinn is now assigned nearly a two-in-three chance of being the first coach to leave his post under the market’s terms.
That figure does not mean a departure is inevitable. It does, however, show how dramatically sentiment shifted after Washington’s overtime defeat and Quinn’s visible reaction. The Commanders’ recent result has made him the central focus of the coaching conversation, while the market has moved much of its attention away from other previously prominent candidates.
## Sirianni Remains Under Pressure
Sirianni is at 23%, down 13 percentage points. The decline suggests traders see Quinn as the more immediate concern, but it does not remove the Philadelphia coach from the discussion.
The Eagles have faced criticism following a late-game coaching collapse and a last-second loss in London. Sirianni has taken responsibility for Philadelphia’s defeat. At his current probability, the market reflects a meaningful possibility of further pressure, particularly if the team suffers another damaging loss. His position could change quickly if results or public scrutiny intensify.
## Bowles Falls After Tampa Bay’s Win
Bowles was recently priced as high as 61%, but his probability has dropped to 23%. Tampa Bay’s win gave the Buccaneers a positive result to point to, while Quinn’s rapid rise drew market attention toward Washington.
A victory can ease immediate pressure, but it does not necessarily settle questions about a coach’s job security. If Tampa Bay’s results worsen again, Bowles could return to the top tier of the market. For now, his substantial decline reflects both the team’s win and the shift in attention toward Quinn.
## Saleh and Schottenheimer: Names to Watch
Tennessee Titans coach Robert Saleh is listed at 14%, down six points. The figure places him below the three leading candidates, though still within reach of the top group. Continued struggles could bring renewed attention to his position, particularly if the team has difficulty controlling games and its defense fails to provide a strong identity.
Dallas Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer has moved in the opposite direction. His probability has risen five points to 10%. Dallas’ home loss to Tampa Bay—then winless—added to the scrutiny surrounding the team. Schottenheimer remains an outsider in the market, but further offensive stagnation or a worsening record could increase pressure.
The remaining listed coaches are DeMeco Ryans at 7%, Jim Harbaugh at 5%, and Matt LaFleur at 1%. Ryans is up five points, while Harbaugh and LaFleur have fallen three and five points, respectively.
## What Could Change the Market?
For now, Quinn leads by a wide margin. Still, these probabilities are sensitive to new results and developments. Sirianni remains in the conversation after Philadelphia’s late loss, while Bowles’ recent win has lowered his immediate standing without erasing the possibility of renewed pressure. Saleh and Schottenheimer are further back, but their numbers could rise if their teams’ performances deteriorate.
The current market points to Quinn as the clearest frontrunner, but it is not a definitive forecast. In a season where coaching fortunes can change from week to week, another significant result could reshape the list.
## The Bottom Line
The pressure on NFL coaches is mounting as teams fall short of expectations. Quinn’s jump to 63% has made him the leading name in the market, with Sirianni and Bowles tied at 23%. Saleh and Schottenheimer are also worth monitoring, while the remaining coaches carry lower probabilities.
For now, Washington’s overtime collapse has put Quinn at the center of the conversation. The market could look very different after the next round of games.
