Bills offensive approach and 13 personnel
Buffalo leaned into a run-first identity early in the season, signaling a strategic shift under Offensive Coordinator Joe Brady. The Bills deployed 13 personnel (three tight ends and one running back) at a league-leading 40.4 percent rate in Week 1, while using 12 personnel (one tight end) only 7.7 percent of plays. The personnel groupings give the offense a versatile look, leveraging the tight-end depth to create mismatches.
Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox, and another tight end on the field together creates dynamic options, especially with Kincaid lined up outside. In Week 1, Kincaid was heavily involved, running 23 routes (second on the team) and commanding a 21.4 percent target share (also second on the team). He totaled 130 receiving yards on five receptions, highlighting the potential impact when healthy. Kincaid’s emergence adds a valuable weapon for the Bills when aligned with Knox and the other tight ends, though durability remains a consideration.
Detroit’s Week 1 defense to 13 personnel
Detroit faced 13 personnel on five snaps in Week 1, allowing an expected points added (EPA) value of -0.10 against that look. The sample is small, but under defensive coordinator Kelvin Sheppard in 2025, the Lions ran 13 personnel on 11.2 percent of snaps—third most in the league—and allowed an EPA of 0.075, ranking 25th in that category. How Detroit handles Buffalo’s heavier formations will be a key factor in slowing down the Bills’ passing and running combinations, especially with Kincaid and Moore on the outside and the threat of James Cook in the backfield.
Lions’ run defense and light box considerations
Detroit showed a tendency to defend with a lighter box in Week 1, lining up in a light box on 53.5 percent of plays, ranking fifth in the league for that metric. A lighter box can invite both run and play-action opportunities for a team like Buffalo that emphasizes the run game but can beat you through the air as well. If Detroit continues to deploy a lighter box at a high rate, Buffalo’s run-heavy approach could pose problems for the Lions if they cannot force a more balanced look.
Last season, Buffalo faced a light box on 376 snaps and averaged 6.91 yards per play with a 48.1 percent success rate. If Detroit opts for such formations, Buffalo may push to exploit them with play-action passes and the run game, testing Detroit’s ability to stop the offense from becoming one-dimensional.
Lions’ offense vs Bills’ defensive looks
Detroit’s offense has remained efficient, even with changes at the coordinator position. Against Buffalo, the defense is likely to see plenty of two-high safety and zone looks. Detroit’s new offensive coordinator Drew Petzing saw heavy use of two-high looks in 2025 with Arizona, averaging around 50 percent of passing plays from two-high looks. In those instances, the Cardinals posted a completion rate around 68 percent, with an EPA near -0.07 and a 44 percent success rate, suggesting many of those completions were shorter and less explosive.
Detroit historically performed well against two-high looks, averaging 7.1 yards per play and an EPA of 0.22 in 2024. So far in 2026, the EPA against two-high looks has dipped, but the Lions still have an opportunity to attack Buffalo’s secondary, particularly if they can keep two-high looks on the field and use their run game to open up play-action opportunities.
Against zone looks, Buffalo ran zone at the 10th-highest rate in Week 1. Detroit’s 2025 performance against zone was 6.39 yards per play with an EPA of 0.05, not as explosive as desired. When Detroit faced a two-high look that turned into zone coverage in 2025, their offense averaged 7.8 yards per play and a 0.22 EPA. In 2026, two-high looks converted into a smaller sample (15 snaps) but were less efficient for Detroit, with 4.67 yards per play and an EPA of -0.21 against such looks. If the Lions want to generate favorable looks, leaning on the running game with Gibbs could create opportunities to exploit Buffalo’s defense.
Key matchups to watch
– Bills’ 13 personnel: Buffalo’s ability to deploy multiple tight ends and keep Kincaid, Knox, and the other tight ends on the field will test Detroit’s personnel groupings and alignments. How Detroit counters these looks, and how effectively they can contain Kincaid and Moore on the outside, will influence the game.
– Bills’ run-pass balance: Buffalo’s emphasis on a balanced approach with a stable of running backs means Detroit’s front seven must be disciplined to limit big runs while also preserving pass rush lanes on play-action passes.
– Lions’ adjustments to two-high looks: Detroit will likely see a mix of two-high and zone looks from Buffalo. Their ability to capitalize on those looks, while maintaining balance with Gibbs and the running game, will be crucial.
Bottom line
Thursday’s game features two strong teams with high postseason expectations. Buffalo’s emphasis on 13 personnel and a potent tight-end trio creates matchup challenges for Detroit, particularly with Kincaid as a vertical and outside threat. Detroit’s offense, under Petzing, has shown efficiency against different looks and will aim to exploit Buffalo’s defensive schemes, especially if they can sustain the running game and leverage two-high looks to stretch the Bills’ defense. The outcome will hinge on how well each team executes its game plan and adapts to the other’s strategic adjustments in a high-stakes season kickoff at Highmark Stadium.
