Every year, some NFL teams arrive with star quarterbacks, deep rosters, and betting lines that point toward a legitimate championship run. Others begin with uncertainty, questions, and odds that reflect long odds from the outset. Looking back at a collection of champions whose preseason odds were tracked, only a small fraction began the season as clear favorites. In fact, roughly 12 percent of past champions entered the year as favorites, a reminder that the unpredictable nature of football can defy even strong expectations. For the 2026 season, the consensus favorite in early betting markets is the Los Angeles Rams, priced around +550, with virtually no other team posted under +1000. The bulk of champions typically started in a different place, often well beyond the usual window for championship chances, yet they still found a way to finish on top.
A substantial share of past champions began the year with odds between +600 and +1200, a range that signals respect from bettors but not overwhelming confidence. Those teams often faced longer odds than truly elite contenders, and some needed to navigate significant quarterback changes, roster turnover, or surprise surges at the right time.
This overview highlights seven teams that defied the odds to lift the Lombardi Trophy, drawing on historical data for context. Each entry reflects a season where the path to a title required overcoming long odds, including scenarios where a backup quarterback took the reins, or the roster encountered dramatic turnarounds after unfavorable starts.
7. 1982 Washington Redskins, Super Bowl XVII
Preseason odds: +3500
Washington entered 1982 with little reason for optimism. The season was impacted by a 57-day players’ strike, shortening the schedule to nine games. Under head coach Joe Gibbs, the team went 8-1 in the strike-shortened year, earning the NFC’s best record and a spot in a special playoff format created for the shortened season. John Riggins emerged as the focal point of the offense, powering the attack behind the infamous “Hogs” line. Washington won four playoff games by double-digit margins, including a 31-17 NFC Championship win over Dallas. In Super Bowl XVII, played on January 30, 1983, the Redskins trailed at halftime before Riggins’ 43-yard TD run on a fourth-and-1 shift helped spark a rally. Washington captured its first NFL championship since 1942, with Riggins earning MVP honors.
6. 1980 Oakland Raiders, Super Bowl XV
Preseason odds: +3500
The Raiders entered the season after trading away longtime starter Ken Stabler, bringing in Dan Pastorini. The campaign began with a rocky 2-3 start, and Pastorini suffered a leg injury in Week 5, prompting Jim Plunkett to take over. Plunkett, a former top draft pick with a checkered NFL resume, revitalized Oakland’s offense. He finished the season strong, guiding the Raiders to an 11-5 record and a wild-card berth. Oakland then won three straight road playoff games, defeating the Oilers, Browns, and Chargers to reach the Super Bowl. In Super Bowl XV, Plunkett threw for 261 yards and three touchdowns, and Oakland became the first wild-card team to win the championship, with Tom Flores becoming the first Hispanic head coach to win the Super Bowl. The season is remembered for the remarkable turnaround and resilience of a team that rose from underdog status to the pinnacle of the sport.
5. 2017 Philadelphia Eagles, Super Bowl LII
Preseason odds: +4000
Philadelphia hadn’t won a Super Bowl previously and hadn’t reached one since 2004. Second-year quarterback Carson Wentz carried high expectations and performed at an MVP level through most of the season, delivering an impressive stat line before an ACL injury in Week 14 opened the door for Nick Foles. Foles stepped in and, despite earlier benchings and trades, led the team to a 13-3 finish. The Eagles defeated Atlanta in the divisional round and Minnesota in the conference championship to reach Super Bowl LII. In a dramatic game against the defending champion Patriots, Philadelphia prevailed 41-33. The game featured the memorable “Philly Special” play, a direct snap to Corey Clement that culminated in a touchdown pass to Trey Burton. Foles completed 373 passing yards with four total touchdowns, earning MVP honors and delivering Philadelphia its first Super Bowl title.
4. 1981 San Francisco 49ers, Super Bowl XVI
Preseason odds: +5000
The 49ers had endured a major rebuilding arc, posting a 2-14 record just two seasons earlier. Joe Montana finally claimed the starting job in 1981, guiding a 13-3 campaign and the franchise’s first playoff appearance since 1972. The postseason run included a signature moment when Montana connected with Dwight Clark for “The Catch” in the end zone to beat the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC Championship. In Super Bowl XVI, San Francisco held a halftime lead, weathered a second-half push by Cincinnati, and secured a 26-21 victory. Montana earned the MVP award, and the win marked the beginning of a dynasty that would deliver multiple championships in the years that followed.
3. 2025 Seattle Seahawks, Super Bowl LX
Preseason odds: +6000
The 2025 Seahawks presented a stark roster overhaul. Key players departed, including Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett, and Seattle pivoted to veteran quarterback Sam Darnold, who had a journeyman career with several teams. Despite the odds, Seattle put together a 14-3 regular season, setting franchise records for wins. The defense led the league in scoring and rushing efficiency. In the playoffs, the Seahawks defeated San Francisco in the divisional round and edged the Rams in the conference championship. Super Bowl LX, held at Levi’s Stadium, saw Seattle prevail 29-13 over New England. Darnold’s performance had its ups and downs, but Kenneth Walker III starred with a 135 rushing yards and 26 receiving yards, earning him the Super Bowl MVP honors as Seattle captured its second championship in franchise history.
2. 2001 New England Patriots, Super Bowl XXXVI
Preseason odds: +6000
The Patriots entered the season coming off a 5-11 campaign, with Drew Bledsoe as the entrenched starter and Tom Brady a sixth-round rookie with only a handful of NFL passes. Bledsoe suffered internal injuries early in the season, thrusting Brady into the starting role. Brady went 11-3 as the quarterback, and New England finished 11-5, capturing the AFC East title. Their playoff run included the famous “Tuck Rule Game” overtime win over Oakland. In the AFC Championship, Brady briefly left the field due to injury but returned to lead the team. Facing the heavily favored St. Louis Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI, the Patriots pulled off the upset, 20-17, on a last-second field goal by Adam Vinatieri. Brady became the youngest Super Bowl MVP at the time, and the victory laid the groundwork for a dynasty that would yield multiple championships in the following years.
1. 1999 St. Louis Rams, Super Bowl XXXIV
Preseason odds: +15000
No champion has started with longer preseason odds. The 1999 Rams opened with an astonishing +15000 price. A season earlier, the team had collapsed to 4-12, and their quarterback, Trent Green, suffered a preseason ACL injury. This setback opened the door for Kurt Warner, an undrafted quarterback with limited NFL experience who had spent time in the Arena Football League and NFL Europe. Warner seized the opportunity, throwing 41 touchdown passes and completing 65.1 percent of his attempts as the Rams surged to a 13-3 record. The offense, nicknamed “The Greatest Show on Turf,” featured Marshall Faulk, Isaac Bruce, and Torry Holt. St. Louis advanced through the playoffs, defeating Minnesota and then Tampa Bay to reach the Super Bowl. In the big game, Warner orchestrated a late comeback sequence, including a 73-yard connection to Isaac Bruce for a game-changing play. The Rams built a lead and held on for a 23-16 victory after Kevin Dyson was tackled one yard short of the end zone on the final play. Warner earned MVP honors as St. Louis captured its first title since 1951.
Note: Game odds are subject to periodic changes. If you or someone you know is struggling with gambling, help is available through the appropriate resources in your region.
This look at historically unlikely champions reinforces a core lesson of the sport: perseverance, adaptability, and peak performance at the right moments can overturn long odds and deliver a season that becomes a defining moment for a franchise. The NFL’s drama often centers not just on the most talented teams, but on the teams that weather the storms, seize opportunities, and rise when expectations are lowest.
