The 2026 NFL season is underway, and with it comes the perennial excitement of fantasy football. The opening week brings plenty of uncertainty, which makes bold predictions all the more engaging. Below are five projections for Week 1 that fantasy managers can consider when setting lineups.
Josh Allen Finishes Outside the Top 10 QBs in Week 1
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen entered the season with a strong fantasy outlook, but Week 1 presents a matchup with potential obstacles. In 2025, Houston’s defense limited opposing passers to a 76.2 rating, ranked third-best in the league, and allowed 183.5 passing yards per game (sixth). They were also effective at creating interceptions (19) and limited passing touchdowns (20 on 538 attempts). In two recent starts against Houston, Allen posted a subpar 62.2 passer rating and a low touchdown rate. While Allen has top-tier upside, the Week 1 assignment against a disciplined Texans defense could temper his scoring, and he may finish outside the top 10 at quarterback in Week 1.
Jaylen Waddle Finishes as a Top-5 WR
The Denver Broncos’ secondary rotations present favorable matchups for explosive plays, particularly with a young cornerback group. Jaylen Waddle has a favorable set of opportunities to rack up substantial receiving totals in Week 1, especially with a high-upside offense and a quarterback who can push the ball downfield. A strong target share and big-play potential could make Waddle a top-5 fantasy wide receiver in Week 1, particularly if defenses struggle to slow his involvement in the passing game.
Garrett Wilson and Breece Hall Each Put Up 80+ Yards and a TD
The New York Jets’ offense features a favorable Week 1 environment against a Titans defense that is widely considered vulnerable, especially in the secondary. Breece Hall is expected to run behind an improved offensive line, with Garrett Wilson benefiting from the presence of a competent starting quarterback in Geno Smith. The combination of a strong ground game and a passing attack that should move the ball effectively points to both Wilson and Hall reaching at least 80 total yards, with each finding the end zone in Week 1.
Tyler Shough Outscores Jayden Daniels
In Week 1, quarterback Tyler Shough is projected to surpass Jayden Daniels in fantasy points. Daniels faces a defense known for its strength up front and a secondary that may be tested by the pressure from a top-five unit schemed to rush the passer. Shough, meanwhile, enters a matchup where he could leverage favorable downfield opportunities and scoring drives. Expect Shough to post a higher fantasy score than Daniels in Week 1, making him a compelling streaming option or DFS pick for the opening slate.
Rico Dowdle Finishes as a Solid 80+ Scrimmage-Yard Contributor
Rico Dowdle has carved out a role in Pittsburgh’s backfield, sharing duties in a committee with Jaylen Warren, who handles pass-catching responsibilities. Dowdle has shown consistent production across recent seasons, typically contributing around 65 rushing yards per game and 4.6 yards per carry. In Week 1, Dowdle could see enough carries and involvement in the passing game to surpass 80 rushing and receiving yards combined, with a score likely as part of a Steelers-controlling-game script. This ceiling makes him a viable flex option in deeper leagues or a solid DFS play for the opening week.
Additional context for Week 1 planning
– Fantasy managers should weigh their rosters against Week 1 matchups, paying attention to defensive strengths and game scripts.
– It’s important to balance upside with risk, particularly when relying on players facing historically stout defenses or teams that project to control time of possession.
– Consider monitoring injury news and lineup confirmations leading up to kickoff, as last-minute changes can significantly impact projections.
Whether you’re drafting in season-long leagues or building lineups for daily fantasy, Week 1 offers plenty of high-upside opportunities. Use these bold projections as a starting point, but tailor selections to your league format, scoring settings, and personal risk tolerance.
