Josh Hines-Allen
Josh Hines-Allen signed a five-year, $141 million contract in 2024. Over the last two seasons, he has recorded eight sacks in each, following a breakout 2023 campaign in which he notched 17.5 sacks. His 46 pressures last season were among the league’s best, but converting pressures into sacks remains a focal point. At 29 years old, his 2027 cap hit is projected at $41.29 million. If production doesn’t rebound, the contract could look less favorable for the team in the long run.
Courtland Sutton
Courtland Sutton was ranked 68th on the NFL’s Top 100 list, a placement that may shift as lineup changes unfold. The Denver Broncos traded for Jaylen Waddle to serve as the primary receiver, a move that could affect Sutton’s role and production. Sutton exceeded 1,000 receiving yards last season by a narrow margin and posted seven touchdown catches. Across eight seasons, Sutton has three 1,000-yard campaigns. He is playing on a four-year, $92 million deal with a cap hit of $28.47 million in 2027, a cost that some observers question relative to expected production.
Budda Baker
Budda Baker, an eight-time Pro Bowler and two-time All-Pro, is widely regarded as one of Arizona’s premier defenders. He earned the 75th spot on the NFL Top 100 list, reflecting both his proven track record and the high expectations that accompany a veteran star. Baker logged 120 tackles last season and contributed 13% of the Cardinals’ tackles from the defensive backfield, but his takeaway total has declined in recent seasons, with only two forced turnovers over the past three years. Turnovers are a key metric for safeties, and Baker’s impact in that element has diminished relative to his peak.
Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams, the No. 1 overall pick in 2024, has shown extraordinary potential but remains a work in progress at the professional level. Williams ranked 51st on the NFL Top 100 list and has yet to surpass a 4,000-yard passing season. While he can manufacture plays and extend drives, his pass completion rate has been among the lower marks in the league, underscoring the need for a higher level of consistency. A significant step forward in his third year, under the guidance of his coaches, is anticipated. If improvement stalls, discussions about him being overrated may intensify.
Drake London
Drake London has faced debate since the Falcons selected him eighth overall in the 2022 draft. He remains a productive receiver when healthy, posting a career-best average of 76.6 yards per game in the most recent season he played a full slate. London has tallied over 1,000 receiving yards in a season, but that achievement alone isn’t always enough to justify a top-10 draft pedigree. The Falcons signed him to a four-year, $141 million contract, making him one of the league’s highest-paid receivers. While the production has been solid, some discussions focus on whether the ceiling aligns with the price tag.
What to watch in Week 1
– Sack-to-pressure conversion: For players like Hines-Allen, the ability to translate pressures into sacks will be a defining metric early in the season.
– Offensive target share: For receivers such as Sutton and London, how many targets they command and their efficiency on those looks will influence their fantasy and real-world value.
– Turnovers and playmaking: Safeties like Baker are evaluated not only by tackles but by takeaways and big plays. A shift in ball-hawking ability could reinvigorate a stagnating stat line.
– Quarterback development: For Williams, continued growth in accuracy, decision-making, and efficiency will determine whether expectations align with results.
Bottom line
The debate over whether a player is overrated often hinges on expectations versus results. The players highlighted here enter Week 1 with substantial talent and track records, but their 2026 performance will hinge on consistency, situational opportunities, and how teams utilize them in schemes designed to maximize strengths. As the season begins, observers will be watching for the signs that either validate the “ overrated” label or prove that their high ceilings are on track to be fully realized.
