As of Saturday evening, July 11, market betting indicated an 82% probability that Toronto would be Leonard’s next team, with the Los Angeles Clippers retaining a 17% chance or the possibility of retirement estimated at 17%, and more than $667,000 in trades having changed hands. Another betting platform showed even stronger confidence in a Raptors reunion, with Toronto valued at about 87%, the Clippers at 11%, and the San Antonio Spurs at 3%, based on substantial trading volume.
Market activity remained steady despite an NBA investigation delaying the trade that both teams had agreed to finalize.
Markets have treated the Raptors’ deal as largely completed in principle. The trade discussions were previously reported to include the Clippers agreeing to send Leonard to Toronto in exchange for Brandon Ingram, Gradey Dick, unprotected first-round picks in 2031 and 2033, a 2027 first-round pick swap, and two second-round picks. Leonard’s market trust was bolstered by his signal that he would sign an extension only with the Raptors, a commitment that influenced other interested teams.
Leonard is under contract for one more season with a salary of $50.3 million, and he would become eligible for a two-year extension worth up to $123.7 million once a trade is official. He reportedly hired a new agent to oversee negotiations with Toronto.
Despite Toronto’s willingness to pay a high price for a 35-year-old with a lengthy injury history, the appeal to bring Leonard back is clear. He posted a career-high 27.9 points per game with 6.4 rebounds across 65 games last season and finished seventh in MVP voting. Returning to the franchise that delivered its only championship and where he won his second NBA Finals MVP would be highly meaningful for both sides.
The remaining obstacle is the NBA investigation. Toronto paused the trade after the league informed them it would assume responsibility for any outcome related to the investigation that could affect Leonard. The probe centers on allegations that a $28 million endorsement deal with a now-bankrupt company tied to Clippers owner Steve Ballmer may have been used to circumvent salary-cap rules. Both Leonard and the Clippers have denied any wrongdoing.
Publicly, the Raptors have not indicated a cooling of interest. The team emphasized their eagerness to bring Leonard back and to reach a swift resolution for players, the organization, and the fan base. Reports noted that the league was inclined to approve the trade but warned that Toronto could face consequences tied to Leonard’s status. The most likely scenario described was that the transaction would proceed under the previously reported terms.
Ultimately, the decision hinges on the investigation’s significance and its potential impact on Leonard’s contract and the trade’s final terms. Market sentiment suggests the pause is temporary, with odds hovering around the mid-to-high 80s in favor of a Raptors deal as the investigation unfolds.
