Industry analyst Joel Corry notes that Mayfield’s camp may be treating the most recent contract for Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones as a starting point. However, Corry also believes the Buccaneers have offered a figure well below that benchmark. In terms of market context, Jones’s deal averages around $44 million per year, while the next-highest quarterback salary is approximately $33.5 million annually, held by Sam Darnold of the Seattle Seahawks. Mayfield’s scheduled 2026 salary sits at $40 million.
This positioning suggests the Buccaneers might not feel Mayfield warrants a raise after a challenging season by his standards. Yet Mayfield has shown more consistency than Jones in certain metrics, and Corry estimates Mayfield could be seeking roughly $50 million per year.
The potential timeline for a Mayfield-Buccaneers contract extension could be lengthy. A recent contract structure for Jones is two years, $88 million, with incentives bringing the total to $100 million and $60 million guaranteed. If the Buccaneers aim higher for Mayfield, they might target a ceiling comparable to Brock Purdy’s five-year, $265 million deal with $182.55 million guaranteed, which averages about $53 million per season.
Mayfield’s 2023-24 season with the Buccaneers included a difficult stretch, contributing to Tampa Bay’s failure to defend their division title. Injuries and durability concerns also affected the offense, and the new coaching staff reportedly has questions about Mayfield’s durability. Last season marked a career-low in several passing metrics for Mayfield with the team: 3,693 passing yards, 26 touchdown passes, a 63.2% completion rate, and a 90.2 passer rating. While there could be a path to a middle ground, Mayfield might benefit financially from gambling on himself rather than committing to a long-term deal with Tampa Bay. The Buccaneers appear willing to wait to assess the true value of Mayfield as their starting quarterback.
Looking ahead at possibilities for both sides, the market for veteran quarterbacks in 2026 shows an average starting salary around $47 million, with the range potentially rising to about $51 million when considering higher guarantees and escalators. Corry suggests a reasonable middle ground for Mayfield could fall between these figures.
One potential approach for the Buccaneers could involve converting Mayfield’s void years into guaranteed money in 2027–2029, which would increase total guaranteed compensation to the $107.5–$117.5 million range. However, the team may prefer to delay such decisions, preserving flexibility to franchise tag Mayfield if needed. The franchise tag for a quarterback can be substantial, with estimates near $46.8 million, depending on the market and the year.
If Mayfield waits for the franchise tag or a stronger market in the coming years, he could secure a larger payday regardless of whether he remains with the Buccaneers. The situation could also shift if other notable quarterbacks, like Lamar Jackson or members of the 2024 rookie class, begin negotiating new deals and influencing market dynamics. If Mayfield’s 2025 season is viewed as inconsistent, betting on himself could remain an attractive option financially. For Tampa Bay, remaining patient through training camp seems likely.
Bottom line: the negotiation could extend well into the off-season, with a range of outcomes influenced by Mayfield’s performance this season, the Buccaneers’ assessment of their quarterback’s ceiling, and broader market movements for veteran signal-callers.
