Insider Mark Kaboly says Rodgers could decide before the 2026 NFL free-agent period, with a strong expectation that the veteran quarterback will return for his 22nd season in Pittsburgh. Kaboly told Heavy Sports he “fully expect[s] Rodgers to sign with the Steelers within the next month,” a timeline that would shape the Steelers’ offseason plans.
Kaboly’s outlook marks a shift from earlier speculation about Rodgers potentially joining another team or retiring, especially after Mike Tomlin’s departure and Art Rooney II’s cautious stance. He argues Rodgers’ return is near-certain, estimating a 99.12 percent chance, and contends the Steelers should not pursue outside quarterbacks this spring if Rodgers is back.
If Rodgers remains in Pittsburgh, the Steelers could avoid adding an external QB this offseason, perhaps using the draft to address depth rather than starting a new quarterback unless a high-potential prospect is available. Kaboly cautions against drafting a quarterback with limited NFL experience behind a soon-to-be 43-year-old Rodgers, suggesting a streamlined QB room with Mason Rudolph and Brock Howard (or equivalent) and reevaluating next year.
The discussion also notes that a 2026 rookie quarterback selection would likely hinge on Rodgers’ status. Kaboly mentioned Alabama’s Ty Simpson as a potential target, but he indicated the likelihood of the Steelers moving up for a quarterback with questions is low, particularly if Rodgers is under contract and ready to lead the offense.
In summary, Kaboly’s projection centers on an imminent Rodgers re-signing, minimal outside quarterback pursuit, and a drafting strategy that would prioritize depth without forcing a quarterback into an uncertain early role behind Rodgers. The timeline and decision factors, he maintains, will offer the Steelers clearer direction for March and April if Rodgers is already under contract.
