Analysts criticized the Kinlaw deal from the outset. Pro Football Focus highlighted it as one of the NFL’s worst free-agent signings in 2025, noting the $30 million guaranteed and questioning the value of the contract. Over the Cap also graded the deal poorly, giving it an F and warning that such commitments can become a burden when cap space dries up.
Kinlaw’s on-field results did little to justify the price tag. In 2025 he finished with a 46.8 overall PFF grade, including a 47.6 run-defense mark and a 9.4% pass-rush win rate, underscoring persistent interior defensive-line weaknesses for Washington.
Kinlaw’s career path helps explain the skepticism. A 2020 first-round pick (No. 14) by the San Francisco 49ers, he battled injuries early in his career and showed only modest production in 2024 with the New York Jets—17 starts, 40 tackles, and 4.5 sacks—yet that level of production didn’t clearly justify a $45 million commitment.
Some observers labeled the Kinlaw signing a standout offseason shock, with voices such as The Ringer’s Steven Ruiz referencing the move as among the offseason’s biggest surprises that didn’t pay off.
Taken together, the Kinlaw contract has become a focal point in discussions of the Commanders’ 2025 strategy and the ensuing more conservative, bottom-line approach for Washington as it eyes the 2026 season.
